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Weekly market: Global jitters, RBI policy dictate the Week: Mkts down over 2%

Saturday, April 9, 2016

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April 09, 2016

 Market Commentary 

Global jitters, RBI policy dictate the Week: Mkts down over 2%

Indian markets registered sharp losses in the Week gone by as the RBI policy and global uncertainty kept the volatility rate high for the Week. The Sensex and Nifty fell 2.36%-2.05% each for the week ended April 08, 2016.


Major Headlines for the week:

Indian indices:
Welcome to the 'Weekly Market Wrap' for Friday, April 08, 2016 where the markets fell last week in tandem with global stocks as uncertainty regarding the quantum and timing of interest rate hikes in the United States spooked investors.

Profit booking added fuel to the fire as Indian shares had risen ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy review on Tuesday, 5 April 2016. Shares corrected after RBI cut its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. 

The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 0.45%. The decline in this index was lower than the Sensex's decline in percentage terms. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.23%, outperforming the Sensex. 

The Sensex fell 595.80 points or 2.36% to settle at 24,673.84 in the week ended on Friday, 8 April 2016. The losses for the Sensex were higher in percentage terms than those for the Nifty 50 index. The Nifty fell 157.85 points or 2.05% to settle at 7,555.20.

Weekly market trend from April 04 - April 08, 2016:

April 04- Trading for the week began on a positive note. Telecom stocks and index heavyweight Infosys led upmove for key benchmark indices a day ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy review on Monday. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, rose 130.01 points or 0.51% to settle at 25,399.65. The gains for the Nifty 50 index were higher in percentage terms than those for the Sensex. The Nifty rose 45.75 points or 0.59% to settle at 7,758.80. 

April 05- Banking, telecom, auto stocks and index heavyweights Infosys and ITC led losses for key benchmark indices, with the barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, falling below the psychologically important 25,000 level on Tuesday. The Sensex fell 516.06 points or 2.03% to settle at 24,883.59. The Nifty fell 155.60 points or 2.01% to settle at 7,603.20. The weakness on the domestic bourses was a part of weakness in global stocks triggered by uncertainty regarding the quantum and timing of interest rate hikes in the United States. 

Meanwhile, on that day the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) announcement of a reduction in its benchmark lending rate viz. the repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) after a monetary policy review came in line with market expectations. The central bank also announced the fine-tuning of its liquidity management framework. While retaining the accommodative stance of the monetary policy, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan indicated in his monetary policy statement that the RBI may cut the repo rate further in the coming months if macroeconomic and financial developments provide room for further rate cut. 

April 06- Gains for metal, auto and telecom stocks offset losses for stocks of public sector banks and index heavyweight Infosys, with the two key benchmark indices registering small gains on Wednesday. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, rose 17.04 points or 0.07% to settle at 24,900.63. The Nifty 50 index rose 11.15 points or 0.15% to settle at 7,614.35. 

April 07- IT, telecom stocks and index heavyweights HDFC and ITC led losses for the two key benchmark indices on Thursday. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, fell 215.21 points or 0.86% to settle at 24,685.42. The Nifty fell 67.90 points or 0.89% to settle at 7,546.45. The Sensex failed to retain the psychologically important 25,000 level which it had crossed at the onset of the trading session. After languishing in negative zone almost throughout the trading session, the two key indices extended losses in late trade as European stocks reversed gains. The Sensex and the Nifty, both, hit 3-week closing low. 

April 08- After seeing a rangebound movement in intraday trade, the two key benchmark indices settled near the flat line on Friday, 8 April 2016. The S&P Sensex, lost 11.58 points or 0.05% to settle at 24,673.84. The Nifty 50 index rose 8.75 points or 0.12% to settle at 7,555.20. The Sensex hit its lowest closing level in more than three weeks. 

Global indices:
Global markets ended most in the red zone where Nikkei fell 2.12%, DAX100 slipped 1.76%, Nasdaq dropped 1.30% while FTSE100 gained 0.95%.

Sectoral and stock screening:
Among the 13 sectors, S&P BSE Healthcare rose 0.71%, S&P BSE Power gained 0.63% and S&P BSE Oil&Gas rose 0.57% while S&P BSE Bankex fell 4.07%, S&P BSE Auto slipped 2.35% and S&P BSE FMCG fell 2.15%



 

 

Looking at the 'A' group stocks, the top three gainers of the week were: Delta Corp up 17.97%, L&T Finance Holdings rose 11.06% and Ramco Cements up 10.36%

Top three losers of the week were: BEML down 13.72%, Hindustan Zinc fell 13.34% and IPCA Lab was down 12.85%

FII/MF activity:

The foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been the net sellers of the Indian stocks to the tune of Rs1040.14 crore as on April 07, 2016 and the domestic investors sold Indian shares worth a net of Rs232.50 crore as on April 04, 2016.


TOP MOVERS (GROUP A) 
Company Price (Rs) % chg
Gainers
Delta Corp

80.75

17.97

L&T Fianance

72.80

11.06

Ramco Cements

442.75

10.36

Losers
BEML

887.25

-13.72

Hindustan Zinc

160.20

-13.34

Ipca Lab

499.30

-12.85

 
 FII/MF ACTIVITIES

Rs (cr)

FII*

MF**

Gross purchase 9,031.01 729.80
Gross sale

10,071.15

962.30

Net investment

-1,040.14

-232.50

*Data as on April 07, 2016
**Data as on April 04, 2016

Market Outlook for the coming week! 
In the coming week, the trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar, and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses.

Next week is a truncated trading week. The stock market will remain shut on Thursday, 14 April 2016, on account of Dr.Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti and again on Friday, 15 April 2016, on account of Ram Navami. 

Among key macro economic announcements, the government is scheduled to unveil industrial production data for February 2016 at 17:30 IST on Tuesday, 12 April 2016.

The government is scheduled to unveil the consumer price index (CPI) data (rural, urban and combined) for the month of March 2016 at 17:30 IST on Tuesday, 12 April 2016.

The next major trigger for the Indian markets is Q4 results of India Inc. The Q4 results season starts next week with IT major Infosys announcing its Q4 March 2016 results on Friday, 15 April 2016.

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