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Weekly Market-Week gets Weak as Crude gets Rude

Friday, June 10, 2016

 Sharekhan's weekly newsletter Visit us at www.sharekhan.com
 
June 10, 2016

 Market Commentary 

Week gets Weak as Crude gets Rude

Indian shares marked their first weekly loss in three, as caution prevailed ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting next week. The Sensex and Nifty rose 0.77%-0.62% each for the week ended June 10, 2016.


Major Headlines for the week:

Indian indices:
Welcome to the 'Weekly Market Wrap' for Friday, June 10, 2016 where the markets declined last week as negative cues from global markets and concerns arising from higher global crude oil prices spooked investors.

The rebound in crude oil prices has sparked concerns of its adverse impact on India's macroeconomic fundamentals. Until recently, lower global commodity prices led to optimism regarding India reining in its fiscal and current account deficit.

With India importing about 80% of its crude requirements, there are now concerns that higher crude oil prices will result in widening of India's current account and fiscal deficit and increase fuel price inflation. 

The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 0.16%. The decline in this index was lower than the Sensex's decline in percentage terms. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 1.92%, outperforming the Sensex. 

The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, fell 207.28 points or 0.77% to settle at 26,635.75. The Nifty 50 index fell 50.75 points or 0.62% to settle at 8,170.05. 


Weekly market trend from June 06 - June 10, 2016:

Jun 06: Indian shares were flat on Monday as investors paused a day before the Reserve Bank of India's decision on policy rates and with a number of global risk events scheduled for later this month, including a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and the "Brexit" referendum. The S&P BSE Sensex and CNX Nifty fell 0.24% each.

Jun 07: Indian shares closed higher on Tuesday after the country's central bank kept key rates unchanged, but said it would remain "accommodative" as it keeps a watch on inflation levels. The S&P BSE Sensex and CNX Nifty rose 0.87%-0.80% each.

Jun 08: Indian shares swung between gains and losses on Wednesday, as investors booked profits on recent outperformers, but defence stocks rose after the United States recognised the country as a "major defence partner" during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ongoing U.S. visit. The S&P BSE Sensex and CNX Nifty rose 0.04%-0.08% each.

Jun 09: India's benchmark Sensex fell nearly 1% on Thursday, its biggest single-day fall in three weeks, as caution set in ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting, while Infosys slumped on worries about its outlook. The S&P BSE Sensex and CNX Nifty fell 0.95%-0.84% each.

Jun 10: Indian shares ended lower on Friday, marking their first weekly loss in three, as caution prevailed ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting next week and a vote in Britain later this month about whether to leave the European Union. The S&P BSE Sensex and CNX Nifty rose 0.48%-0.41% each today.

Global indices:
Global indices ended mixed where Dow Jones surged 1.00%, Hang Seng rose 0.46% and FTSE100 rose 0.36% while Shanghai Comp fell 0.39%, CAC40 slipped 0.37% and Nikkei fell 0.25%

 

Sectoral and stock screening:
The 13 sectors ended on a mixed note. Top gainers: S&P BSE Power up 3.32%, S&P BSE Metal surged 2.73% and S&P BSE CG rose 2.40%. Top losers: S&P BSE IT fell 3.48%, S&P BSE TECk fell 3.21% and S&P BSE HC fell 0.97%


Looking at the 'A' group stocks, the top three gainers of the week were: Gati up 19.13%, J&K Bank up 17.21% and JSW Energy up 15.92%.

Top three losers of the week were: Piramal Enterprise down 7.69%, Redington down 7.28% and Rajesh Exports down 6.88%.

FII/MF activity:

The foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been the net buyers of the Indian stocks to the tune of Rs1148.85 crore and the domestic investors sold Indian shares worth Rs62.50 crore as on June 08, 2016.



TOP MOVERS (GROUP A) 
Company Price (Rs) % chg
Gainers
Gati

160.05

19.13

J&K Bank

66.40

17.21

JSW Energy

80.10

15.92

Losers
Piramal Enterprise

1,335.00

-7.69

Redington

103.10

-7.28

Rajesh Exports

490.25

-6.88

 
 FII/MF ACTIVITIES

Rs (cr)

FII

MF

Gross purchase 15,350.77 2,140.60
Gross sale

14,201.92

2,203.10

Net investment

1,148.85

-62.50

Data as on June 08, 2016

Market Outlook for the coming week! 
Investors will closely watch how the monsoon advances in the country. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on June 08, 2016, announced the arrival of the monsoon rains in Kerala.

Among key macroeconomic announcements, the government is scheduled to unveil the consumer price index (CPI) data (rural, urban and combined) for the month of May 2016 at on Monday, June 13, 2016.

The inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) for the month of May 2016 is scheduled to be released by the government on June 14, 2016.

In global market, China will unveil its Industrial Production data for May 2016 on June 12, 2016.

Federal Reserve Chair Jannet Yellen will speak on June 15, 2016. Yellen's speeches are closely watched as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy. On that day, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will unveil economic projections. FOMC members will also vote on where to set the interest rate.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) will unveil monetary policy statement on June 15, 2016. BoJ will hold a press conference on June 16, 2016, to look into the factors that affected the most recent interest rate decision, the overall economic outlook, inflation and offers insights into future monetary policy decisions.

Bank of England (BOE) will decide on interest rate on June 16, 2016. BOE monetary policy committee members will vote on where to set the rate.

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