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Monthly Market: Bulls take a pause in October

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

 Sharekhan's monthly newsletter Visit us at www.sharekhan.com
 
November 02, 2010

 Market Commentary 

Bulls take a pause in October

After a strong run in September, bulls take a breather in October as markets turn to consolidation mode and end the month marginally lower

Major news for the month:

  • August trade deficit widens to a 23-month high 
  • August index of industrial production comes in at 5.6% 
  • Inflation at 8.62% in September
  • Infosys Technologies consolidated Q2 net jumps 13% yoy
  • Reliance Industries posts record 28% rise in Q2 profits

After a spectacular September, the Indian markets lost steam in October and ended the month marginally lower. The markets switched into consolidated mode. Rising inflation worries weighed on the investor sentiment as India's inflation rose to 8.62% in September 2010 as against 8.5% seen in August 2010. The sentiments also dampened after the disappointing index of industrial production (IIP) numbers, which came in at 5.6% in August 2010 as compared to 15.2% seen in July 2010 and 10.6% a year ago. The investor remained cautious on doubts over the quantum of quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve. The markets shrugged off the positive triggers like encouraging quarterly earnings by the companies along with continuous growth in India's exports and good auto sales numbers. During the month, the markets hit the 33-month high.

During the month, the Sensex and the Nifty swung 1086 and 347 points respectively. Signing off the month, the Sensex closed lower by 37 points or 0.18%, at 20032 and the Nifty shut 12 points or 0.2% down, at 6018.

On the global front, all the major indices ended the month higher except Japan's Nikkei and Sensex that fell by 1.78% and 0.18% respectively. China's Shanghai Composite surged the most by 12.17%. Rest of the major indices were up in the range of 2-6%.

Looking into sectors, BSE Heath Care (HC) was the topper, up by 7.3%, followed by BSE Oil & Gas that advanced by 4.8% and BSE Auto surged by 4.01%. On the losers' side, BSE Power fell the most by 3.62%, followed by BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) that lost by 3.08% and BSE Realty slipped by 2.46%.

 

On the 'A' group stocks? front, Indiabulls Financial rose by 55.11%, followed by Vijaya Bank that rose by 30.61% and Rural Canara Bank gained by 23.53%. On the losers' side, Financial Technologies declined the most by 14.55%, followed by Apollo Tyres that slid by 11.72% and Torrent Power lost by 9.68%.

The markets touched new highs in October owing to persisting foreign inflows. During the month, the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were the net buyers of Indian stocks to the tune of record Rs28,562.8 crore, while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were the net sellers of Indian shares to the tune of Rs5,819.1 crore.
 

 TOP MOVERS (GROUP A) 
Company Price (Rs) % chg
Gainers
Indiabulls Financial

220.65

55.11

Vijaya Bank

106.45

30.61

Canara bank

719.75

23.53

Losers
Financial Technologies

986.30

-14.55

Apollo Tyres

71.55

-11.72

Torrent Power

292.05

-9.69


 FII/MF ACTIVITIES

Rs (cr)

FII

MF*

Gross purchase 92,945 12,533
Gross sale

64,382

18,352

Net investment

28,562

-5,819

* As on October 28, 2010

FROM SHAREKHAN FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH DESK

After the strong rally in September, the Nifty consolidated around 6000 levels in October given the quarterly results season and major global events (like the G-20 submit and the likely announcement of another round of quantitative easing [QE] in US). The second quarter results were largely inline with expectations, with no major negative surprises. But the likely QE announcement is awaited and the expectations are already quite high. The Federal Reserve (FED) is expected to announce $1-1.2 trillion package to revive US economy in its November 03, 2010 meet. Anything lower than expectations could lead to volatility in the near-term. However, we remain sanguine about the uptrend in medium-to-long term in the equity markets.

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