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Monthly Market: March wraps FY13 in red; Sensex, Nifty down over 0.10%
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Tuesday, April 9, 2013 |
| | | Market Commentary | | | | March wraps FY13 in red; Sensex, Nifty down over 0.10% | | | Markets witnessed extreme volatility in the month of March and traded in a narrow range. The Sensex and the Nifty ended 0.1% lower.
 Major news for the month Indian Indices The month of March proved to be a challenging one for the Indian markets. This was the second-consecutive month where the markets ended in the red zone. The month gone by did not prove to be an astonishing one for the equities as a slew of negatives weighed on the markets. Majority of the sectors were under selling pressure. The S&P BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty ended the month with losses of 0.13% & 0.18% respectively.
From the global front, in March, there wasn't much news flow in terms of global policy making. Coming to the European markets, both equity and fixed income asset classes felt the pressure when Cyprus proposed to impose a tax of sorts on individual bank deposits to collect funds to tackle its sovereign debt. The proposal was criticised severely and was not implemented.
Domestic gold prices were under fire as the government is trying to take measures to reduce its current account deficit and thereby is reducing gold imports. At the same time, international gold prices also faced correction, which is a double whammy for gold prices in India.
Major events in the month of March -
The Reserve Bank of India in its mid-quarter policy review (Jan-March) reduced Repo rate by 25 bps to 7.5%, in line with estimates. The RBI lowered the repo rate for the second time in this year in a bid to help revive growth in Asia's third-largest economy, but warned that the scope for further easing is limited. However, the other key rates - CRR and reverse repo rate remained unchanged.
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India's wholesale price index (WPI) rose at faster-than-expected 6.84% in February, clouding the policy outlook ahead of the RBI meeting next week. December inflation has been revised to 7.31% from 7.18%.
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India's industrial production grew 2.4% in January compared to a contraction in December, government data showed.
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Retail inflation rose for the fifth consecutive month to 10.91% in February - remaining in the double-digit terrain for third month in a row - on account of higher prices of vegetables, edible oil, cereals and protein-based items.
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Domestic passenger car sales declined by 25.71% to 1,58,513 units in February this year compared to 2,13,362 units in the same month of 2012.
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India's February exports rose 4.25% from a year earlier to $26.3 billion, while imports rose 2.6% to $41.2 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $14.9 billion, trade ministry officials said on Monday (March 11, 2013) Monthly Trend for the month of March: -
Indian Markets posted a smart recovery in the week ended March 08, 2013. A flurry of good newsflow boosted investor sentiment this week. The S&P BSE Sensex ended at highest level since February 04, 2013 after posting biggest weekly gain since November 30, 2012. The Sensex gained over 500 points in the last three sessions tracking gains in global stocks. Markets ended this week on a buoyant note led by strong global cues. The BSE Sensex jumped 764.71 points or 4.04% to settle at 19683.23 while NSE Nifty gained 226 points or 3.95% to settle at 5,945.70 in the week ended March 08, 2013.
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Indian markets shut shop in the red terrain led by weak global environment and domestic cues for the week ended March 15, 2013. There was no respite for the Indian markets this week due unsupportive global cues. Selling pressure across the board kept the sentiments under pressure. The markets declined last week on fears that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may not cut interest rates at its mid-quarter review of Monetary Policy 2012-13 on 19 March 2013, amid rising retail inflation. The BSE Sensex declined 255.67 points or 1.30% to settle at 19427.56 while NSE Nifty dropped 73.10 points or 1.23% to settle at 5,872.60 in the week ended March 15, 2013.
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Domestic and global woes weighed on the market sentiments for the week ended March 22, 2013. Major highlight this week were the political worries which hovered on the market sentiments, as the DMK pulled out of the Congress-led UPA coalition on Tuesday (March 19, 2013) in protest against the government's position on a US backed United Nations resolution on war crimes carried out during Sri Lanka's civil war. The BSE Sensex declined 3.56% to settle at 18,735.60 while NSE Nifty dropped 3.76% to settle at 5,872.60 in the week ended March 22, 2013.
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The Indian markets closed with marginal gains and remained in a narrow range in a holiday shortened week. The Sensex rose 0.53% and the Nifty was up by 0.55% for the week ended March 29, 2013. The key indices too traded in a narrow range as the investors remained on the side-lines in a holiday truncated week. The market sentiments were boosted by data which showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained buyers of Indian stocks during the week. The BSE Sensex rose 100.17 points to 18,835.77, while NSE Nifty rose 31.2 points to  5,682.55. Global indices movement for the month:
All the global indices closed the month on a mixed note. Nikkei was the top gainer for the month rising by 6.72%, followed by Dow Jones which was up by 3.73%, Nasdaq surged 3.40%, FTSE100 gained 0.80%, DAX100 was up by 0.69% and CAC40 rose 0.23%. Top Losers: Shanghai Composite slipped by 5.47% and Hang Seng was down by 3.13%.
 Sectoral and stock screening for the month:
Among the 13 sectors, only four sectors closed in the green zone while remaining nine sectors ended in red.
Top Gainers: BSE FMCG rose 4.41% and BSE HCS gained 2.53%, BSE IT rose 1.94% and BSE TECk was up by 0.10%.
Top Losers: BSE Realty fell by 11.45%, BSE Power was down by 5.59% while BSE PSU fell 5.56%.
| | Among the 'A' group stocks, top three gainers were - Jubilant FoodWorks which was up by 16.84%, Opto Circuits was up by 14.53% and Ranbaxy Laboratories ended the month up by 14.35%.
Top three losers - MMTC down by 51.00%, Astrazeneca Pharma down by 27.20% and Reliance Infrastructure down by 24.94%.
FII/MF activity:
The foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought Indian stocks worth a net of Rs11660.5 crores and the domestic investors sold Indian stocks worth a net of Rs1613.4 crores in the month of March. | | TOP MOVERS (GROUP A) |  | | | | | | | | Jubilant FoodWorks | 1,243.75 | 16.84 | | | Opto Circuits | 60.30 | 14.53 | | | Ranbaxy Laboratories | 439.90 | 14.35 | | | | | | | Astrazeneca Pharma | 224.30 | -27.20 | | | Reliance Infra | 324.65 | -24.94 | | | | | |
| FII/MF ACTIVITIES* |  | | | | | | Gross purchase | 67,654 | 7,876 | | | | | Net investment | 11,660 | -1,613 | | | | | | | | * As on March 28, 2013 | | | | | | | | FROM SHAREKHAN FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH DESK | | | | |
Weak result season and political uncertainties makes it a tough month.
Benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, have corrected by 8-10% from the peak level. But the correction in the mid-cap space is quite severe and driven by growing political and policy uncertainties in India. We do not expect the sentiments to improve dramatically in April also.
The Q4 result season is expected to be disappointing with negative growth in aggregate earnings of the Sensex companies. The performance of the mid cap companies would be all the more soft with sluggish demand environment and pressure on margins. However, the coming few weeks would provide an attractive opportunity to accumulate quality stocks.
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posted by Anonymous @ 5:23 PM  |
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