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Monthly Market: January jolt: Highest monthly loss in 28 months
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Wednesday, February 2, 2011 |
| | Market Commentary | | January jolt: Highest monthly loss in 28 months | | January proved to be a terrible month for the markets, registering losses of over 10%. This is the highest monthly loss in the past 28 months
Major news for the month: - November 2010 IIP at 2.7%
- Inflation rises to 8.43% in December 2010
- RBI hikes repo, reverse repo rates by 25 basis points
- Infosys Q3 net profit up 14% at Rs1,780 cr
- Reliance Industries Q3 net profit surges 28% yoy
- TCS Q3 consolidated net profit jumps 30% yoy
Indian Indices It was certainly not what the Indian markets would have thought to start the New Year 2011 with. Hopes of December rally to continue in 2011 went in vain. January proved to be a terrible month for the markets, registering losses of over 10%. This is the highest monthly loss in the past 28 months and the January blues have become a feature four years in a row. Slew of negative news led to a heavy slide: Inflation surged to 8.43% in December 2010 as compared to 7.48% seen in previous month. Spike in inflation forced the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to hike interest rates in its quarterly monetary policy. RBI raised repo rate and reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% and to 5.5% respectively while the CRR was left unchanged. Rate sensitive sectors took a heavy beating in January as inflation worries soar. Index of industrial production (IIP) data for the month of November 2010 came in at an 18-month low level of 2.7% versus 10.8% seen in the previous month. Also, multiple headwinds on the political and economic front, concerns over moderation in growth and corporate earnings, sparked a sell-off by foreign institutional investors (FIIs). The domestic indices witnessed extreme volatility during the month. The Sensex and the Nifty swung 2626 points and 764 points respectively. The indices also slipped below their 200-day moving averages, a key indicator of support levels. Wrapping off the month, the Sensex stayed at 18328, down by 2181 points or 10.64% and the Nifty fell 629 points or 10.25%, at 5506. Global indices On the global front, most of the world indices ended the month in the positive territory. However, the Sensex plunged over 10% and Shanghai Composite fell marginally. The biggest gainer of the month was CAC 40 rising 5.28%, while Dax 100 and Dow Jones posted gains of over 2% each. Sectoral and stock screening Coming to the sectoral side, all the 13 sectors ended the month with huge losses. BSE Realty was the worst performer, down by 21.97%. BSE Auto fell by 13.10%, followed by BSE Capital Goods (CG) and BSE Oil & Gas declined by 12.25% and 10.56% respectively. Rest of the sectors ended the month lower in the range of 5.68-9.83%. | | Among 'A' group stocks, top three gainers of the month - Jindal Saw surged by 10.69%, HCL Technologies rose by 8.65% and Cadila Healthcare gained by 7.51%. Top three losers of the month - IVRCL Infrastructure crashed by 39.99%, Housing Development & infrastructure dropped by 32.43% and Unitech lost by 27.65%. FII/MF activity FIIs turned net sellers for the first time since the Greek debt crisis in May. FIIs exit from the Indian equities rattled investor sentiments. FIIs were net sellers of the Indian shares to the tune of Rs4,812.90 crore in January. The domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were the net buyers of the Indian shares to the tune of Rs199 crore in January. | TOP MOVERS (GROUP A) |  | | | | | | | Cadila Healthcare | 825.20 | 7.51 | | | | | | | | | | FII/MF ACTIVITIES |  | | | | Gross purchase | 57,287 | 11,410 | | | Net investment | -4,812 | 199 | | | | | | | * As on January 28, 2011 | | | | | | | FROM SHAREKHAN FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH DESK |  | | | Despite a rally in the equity markets globally, the losing streak in the Indian markets gained further momentum of the back of deterioration in macro environment. Inflation has remained stubbornly high and industrial production is showing signs of moderation. The RBI took a hawkish stance and hiked policy rates once again after a pause in December review meet. On the brighter side, the corporate earning has been largely in line with expectations. Even after taking into account the recent downward revision in consensus estimates, the earnings in FY2012 is likely to grow at healthy rate of 17-18% over FY2011 and the valuations have turned reasonably attractive now. We view the recent volatility as an opportunity to accumulate quality stocks. | | | | | | | | | | | | | To know more about our products and services, click here. | | | | | | | Sharekhan Ltd. Regd Add: 10th Floor, Beta Building, Lodha iThink Techno Campus, Off. JVLR, Opp. Kanjurmarg Railway Station, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai ? 400 042, Maharashtra. Tel: 022 - 61150000. BSE Cash-INB011073351; F&O-INF011073351; NSE ? INB/INF231073330; CD - INE231073330; MCX Stock Exchange : CD - INE261073330 DP: NSDL-IN-DP-NSDL-233-2003; CDSL-IN-DP-CDSL-271-2004; PMS INP000000662; Mutual Fund: ARN 20669. | | | | | | | | ?This document has been prepared by Sharekhan Ltd. 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