ShareKhan Newsletter Blog

 
 

 

 

Get Updates By Email


 

Preview | Pwd. by FeedBlitz

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monthly Market: January jolt: Highest monthly loss in 28 months

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

 Sharekhan's monthly newsletter Visit us at www.sharekhan.com
 
February 02, 2011

 Market Commentary 

January jolt: Highest monthly loss in 28 months 

January proved to be a terrible month for the markets, registering losses of over 10%. This is the highest monthly loss in the past 28 months

Major news for the month:

  • November 2010 IIP at 2.7% 
  • Inflation rises to 8.43% in December 2010
  • RBI hikes repo, reverse repo rates by 25 basis points 
  • Infosys Q3 net profit up 14% at Rs1,780 cr
  • Reliance Industries Q3 net profit surges 28% yoy 
  • TCS Q3 consolidated net profit jumps 30% yoy

Indian Indices
It was certainly not what the Indian markets would have thought to start the New Year 2011 with. Hopes of December rally to continue in 2011 went in vain. January proved to be a terrible month for the markets, registering losses of over 10%. This is the highest monthly loss in the past 28 months and the January blues have become a feature four years in a row.

Slew of negative news led to a heavy slide: Inflation surged to 8.43% in December 2010 as compared to 7.48% seen in previous month. Spike in inflation forced the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to hike interest rates in its quarterly monetary policy. RBI raised repo rate and reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% and to 5.5% respectively while the CRR was left unchanged. Rate sensitive sectors took a heavy beating in January as inflation worries soar. Index of industrial production (IIP) data for the month of November 2010 came in at an 18-month low level of 2.7% versus 10.8% seen in the previous month. Also, multiple headwinds on the political and economic front, concerns over moderation in growth and corporate earnings, sparked a sell-off by foreign institutional investors (FIIs).

The domestic indices witnessed extreme volatility during the month. The Sensex and the Nifty swung 2626 points and 764 points respectively. The indices also slipped below their 200-day moving averages, a key indicator of support levels. Wrapping off the month, the Sensex stayed at
18328, down by 2181 points or 10.64% and the Nifty fell 629 points or 10.25%, at 5506.

Global indices
On the global front, most of the world indices ended the month in the positive territory. However, the Sensex plunged over 10% and Shanghai Composite fell marginally. The biggest gainer of the month was CAC 40 rising 5.28%, while Dax 100 and Dow Jones posted gains of over 2% each.

Sectoral and stock screening
Coming to the sectoral side, all the 13 sectors ended the month with huge losses. BSE Realty was the worst performer, down by 21.97%. BSE Auto fell by 13.10%, followed by BSE Capital Goods (CG) and BSE Oil & Gas declined by 12.25% and 10.56% respectively. Rest of the sectors ended the month lower in the range of 5.68-9.83%.

Among 'A' group stocks, top three gainers of the month - Jindal Saw surged by 10.69%, HCL Technologies rose by 8.65% and Cadila Healthcare gained by 7.51%. Top three losers of the month - IVRCL Infrastructure crashed by 39.99%, Housing Development & infrastructure dropped by 32.43% and Unitech lost by 27.65%.

FII/MF activity
FIIs turned net sellers for the first time since the Greek debt crisis in May. FIIs exit from the Indian equities rattled investor sentiments. FIIs were net sellers of the Indian shares to the tune of Rs4,812.90 crore in January. The domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were the net buyers of the Indian shares to the tune of Rs199 crore in January.

 TOP MOVERS (GROUP A) 
Company Price (Rs) % chg
Gainers
Jindal Shaw

209.10

10.69

HCL Tech

493.80

8.65

Cadila Healthcare

825.20

7.51

Losers
IVRCL Infra

80.35

-39.99

HDIL

131.50

-32.43

Unitech

48.15

-27.65


 FII/MF ACTIVITIES

Rs (cr)

FII

MF*

Gross purchase 57,287 11,410
Gross sale

62,099

11,211

Net investment

-4,812

199

* As on January 28, 2011

FROM SHAREKHAN FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH DESK

Despite a rally in the equity markets globally, the losing streak in the Indian markets gained further momentum of the back of deterioration in macro environment. Inflation has remained stubbornly high and industrial production is showing signs of moderation. The RBI took a hawkish stance and hiked policy rates once again after a pause in December review meet. On the brighter side, the corporate earning has been largely in line with expectations. Even after taking into account the recent downward revision in consensus estimates, the earnings in FY2012 is likely to grow at healthy rate of 17-18% over FY2011 and the valuations have turned reasonably attractive now. We view the recent volatility as an opportunity to accumulate quality stocks. 

To know more about our products and services, click here.

Sharekhan Ltd. Regd Add: 10th Floor, Beta Building, Lodha iThink Techno Campus, Off. JVLR, Opp. Kanjurmarg Railway Station, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai ? 400 042, Maharashtra. Tel: 022 - 61150000. BSE Cash-INB011073351; F&O-INF011073351; NSE ? INB/INF231073330; CD - INE231073330; MCX Stock Exchange : CD - INE261073330 DP: NSDL-IN-DP-NSDL-233-2003; CDSL-IN-DP-CDSL-271-2004; PMS INP000000662; Mutual Fund: ARN 20669.

?This document has been prepared by Sharekhan Ltd. This Document is subject to changes without prior notice and is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed to and may contain confidential and/or privileged material and is not for any type of circulation. Any review, retransmission, or any other use is prohibited. Kindly note that this document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction.
Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. SHAREKHAN will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, SHAREKHAN, its subsidiaries and associated companies, their directors and employees (?SHAREKHAN and affiliates?) are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that may prevent SHAREKHAN and affiliates from doing so. We do not represent that information contained herein is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This document is prepared for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone betaken as the basis for an investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views. Affiliates of Sharekhan may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. 
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject SHAREKHAN and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.
SHAREKHAN & affiliates may have used the information set forth herein before publication and may have positions in, may from time to time purchase or sell or may be materially interested in any of the securities mentioned or related securities. SHAREKHAN may from time to time solicit from, or perform investment banking, or other services for, any company mentioned herein. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall SHAREKHAN, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. Any comments or statements made herein are those of the analyst and do not necessarily reflect those of SHAREKHAN.?

To unsubscribe write to myaccount@sharekhan.com

 

Manage your newsletter subscriptions

 

posted by Anonymous @ 3:40 AM  

0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home
Latest Post

Post-market: Markets hit 5-month low on extreme se......

Pre-market: Egypt unrest may lead markets to start......

Braveheart's Best...

Weekly-market: A weak week: Indices down over 3%...

Buzz (Metal & Energy): Fed to continue with QE; me......

Post-market: Nifty hammered on expiry day, ends be......

Pre-market: Markets may begin in green...

Pre-market: Markets may begin in green...

Post-market: Markets end strong as banks zoom ahea......

Braveheart's Best...

   

ShareKhan Newsletter Blog  

All credit goes to original authors of these articles.