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Weekly Market: Global chaos pushes Indian markets to red zone

Saturday, December 5, 2015

 Sharekhan's weekly newsletter Visit us at www.sharekhan.com
 
December 05, 2015

 Market Commentary 

Global chaos pushes Indian markets to red zone

Indian shares posted their fourth straight weekly loss after earlier hitting an over six-week low due to prospects of increase in interest rates in the United States. The Sensex and the Nifty fell 1.88%-2.02% each.


Major Headlines for the week:

Indian indices:
Welcome to the 'Weekly Market Wrap' for Friday, December 04, 2015, where key benchmark indices edged lower in the week on prospects of increase in interest rates in the United States.

The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, fell below the psychological 26,000 mark during the week. The Sensex and the Nifty, both, settled at their lowest level in more than two weeks. Key indices edged lower in three out of five trading sessions during the week.

Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Wednesday, 2 December 2015 reinforced the case for an interest rate hike during the middle of this month. The Fed is widely expected to announce an increase of 25 basis points in the federal funds rate after a regular monetary policy review scheduled during the middle of this month. 

Investors in emerging markets, including India are worried that once the Fed starts raising interest rates, it will drain liquidity from global emerging markets and redirect it to developed economies. The Fed has held its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero since December 2008. The ultra-loose monetary policy in the US has encouraged heavy investment in higher-yielding emerging markets. 

The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 49.46 points or 0.45% to settle at 10,935.11. The fall in the index was lower than Sensex's decline in percentage terms. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 11.68 points or 0.1% to settle at 11,557.52. The index outperformed the Sensex. 

In the week ended Friday, 4 December 2015, the 30-share S&P BSE Sensex lost 490.09 points or 1.88% to settle at 25,638.11, its lowest closing level since 18 November 2015. The 50-unit CNX Nifty lost 160.80 points or 2.02% to settle at 7,781.90, its lowest closing level since 18 November 2015. 

Weekly market trend from November 30 - December 04, 2015

November 30- A divergent trend was witnessed as the barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, settled with tiny gains while the 50-unit Nifty 50 index settled with small losses on Monday. The Sensex rose 17.47 points or 0.07% to settle at 26,145.67, its highest closing level since 6 November 2015. 

December 01- Gains in metal, pharma and oil sector stocks enabled small gains for key benchmark indices on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged after a monetary policy review. The Sensex rose 23.74 points or 0.09% to settle at 26,169.41, its highest closing level since 6 November 2015. 

December 02- Losses for banking sector stocks and index heavyweights HDFC, Infosys and L&T outweighed gains for pharma stocks and index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) resulting in small losses for key benchmark indices on Wednesday. The Sensex lost 51.56 points or 0.2% to settle at 26,117.85, its lowest closing level since 26 November 2015. 

December 03- Prospects of increase in interest rates in the United States and data showing slowdown in India's services sector growth weighed on Indian stocks on Thursday, with barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, falling below the psychological 26,000 mark. The Sensex lost 231.23 points or 0.89% to settle at 25,886.62, its lowest closing level since 24 November 2015.

December 04- Key benchmark indices dropped on Friday, tracking slide in global stocks after the European Central Bank (ECB)'s stimulus package announced after policy meet on Thursday, 3 December 2015, fell well short of markets' high expectations. The Sensex lost 248.51 points or 0.96% to settle at 25,638.11, its lowest closing level since 18 November 2015. 

Global indices:
Global indices ended mixed where Shanghai Composite rose 2.58%, Hang Seng rose 0.76% whereas DAX100 was down 4.80%, CAC40 fell 4.37% and FTSE100 slipped 2.15%

Sectoral and stock screening:
Among 13 Sectoral Indices S&P BSE Metal was up by 1.91%, S&P BSE HC rose 0.85% and S&P BSE Realty rose 0.35%. Top Losers: S&P BSE Bankex down 2.68%, S&P BSE Auto down 2.12% and S&P BSE CD down 1.83%



 

 

Looking at the 'A' group stocks, the top three gainers of the week were: Indian Hotels up 14.98%, Bhushan Steel up 12.43% and JSW Steel up 11.58%.

Top three losers of the week were: Just Dial down 12.20%, JK Lakshmi Cement down 8.84% and Gateway Distriparks down 7.57%.

FII/MF activity:
The foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been the net sellers of the Indian stocks to the tune of Rs1827.76 crore and the domestic investors bought Indian shares worth a net of Rs1008.80 crore as on December 02, 2015.


TOP MOVERS (GROUP A) 
Company Price (Rs) % chg
Gainers
Indian Hotels

107.05

14.98

Bhushan Steel

47.50

12.43

JSW Steel

972.05

11.58

Losers
Just Dial

826.70

-12.20

Jk Lakshmi Cement

326.70

-8.84

Gateway Distriparks

323.50

-7.57

 
 FII/MF ACTIVITIES

Rs (cr)

FII*

MF

Gross purchase 21,355.77 4,281.40
Gross sale

23,183.53

3,272.60

Net investment

-1,827.76

1,008.80

Data as on December 02, 2015

Market Outlook for the coming week! 
In the coming week, macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, flows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses.

In macroeconomic data, the government will unveil index of industrial production (IIP) data for October 2015 after market hours on Friday, 11 December 2015.

The primary market turns active as the initial public offers (IPOs) of two companies open for bidding next week. The initial public offer (IPO) of Dr. Lal PathLabs opens for bidding on 8 December 2015. The IPO is scheduled to close on 10 December 2015.

Also the initial public offer (IPO) of Alkem Laboratories opens for bidding on 8 December 2015. The IPO is scheduled to close on 10 December 2015. The IPO comprises offer for sale (OFS) of 1.28 crore equity shares of Rs 2 each.

On Thursday, 10 December 2015, the Bank of England (BoE) announces its policy decision. As per reports, the Monetary Policy Committee will probably leave its key benchmark interest rate at a record-low of 0.5%.

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